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Scottish Property News

Scottish housing market showing signs of revival

 © The Herald
Originally published: 15.07.2009
 
The majority of surveyors expect house prices to rise in the coming months amid increased interest from potential buyers, with firms in Scotland more bullish than those south of the border.

In a survey that will boost hopes that the key housing market is recovering, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors found that more of its members expected prices to rise over the next three months than expected them to fall for the first time in two years.

With a balance of 6% more firms in England and Wales expecting prices to rise rather than fall, the survey points to a marked improvement in sentiment in recent weeks. In May, a negative balance of 11% of respondents expected prices to fall.

In Scotland, surveyors appear to have become much more confident that the market is in recovery mode following two years in which the fall-out from the credit crunch combined with the recession sent prices into reverse. advertisement

A balance of 17% of respondents north of the border told RICS that they expected prices to increase in the current quarter.

The survey detected tangible signs that growing numbers of people are considering taking the risk of buying a house, despite recent increases in unemployment. New buyer inquiries increased for an eighth consecutive month and at their fastest rate since the survey began in 1999, resulting in a balance of 67% of respondents reporting increased enquiries.

In Scotland, a balance of 48% of respondents reported more enquiries in June, when good weather helped to flush out potental buyers. These may have been tempted by falls in house prices since the market peaked in the summer of 2007.

"We have seen a rise in sales expectations in June which does bring confidence to a challenging market," said Sarah Spiers, head of communications at RICS Scotland.

"Property is selling and getting the price right is the key to this."

Surveyors in areas stretching from the Borders to the Highlands reported increased viewings. The improvement in conditions had an impact on prices during the three months to June, when RICS found that the balance of respondents reporting a fall in prices fell to 18.1%, from from 43.8% in May. The June reading was the best since September 2007.

Scotland also outperformed on this measure, with a balance of 6% of members in the country reporting that prices had fallen. This was the best performance since March 2008.

With surveyors reporting an increase in the average number of transactions completed and a reduction in the number of houses on their books, the survey may ease fears that an overhang of unsold homes will weigh on the market for a long time.

However, Spiers said: "Securing mortgage funding still appears to be difficult. Lack of liquidity in the mortgage market continues to have a serious impact on the housing market. Until banks step up lending we are unlikely to see any significant change."

Howard Archer, economist at consultancy Global Insight, said house prices had recently gained support from "markedly increased buyer interest".

However, he cautioned: "We believe the pick up in actual house purchases is likely to remain relatively gradual for some time given ongoing tight credit and relatively poor economic fundamentals."

 
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